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After seven rounds of the Champions League group stage, Real Madrid sit in third place with 15 points, ensuring qualification among the top 24. However, to advance directly to the round of 16, they still need a positive result in their final match against Benfica.
Although currently third, Real Madrid could still miss out on the top eight if they fail to get the required result on the last matchday. Their fate is in their own hands, and a win in Portugal would secure a spot in the round of 16 regardless of other results.
A draw against Benfica would leave Real Madrid with 16 points and a goal difference of +11. Even if other teams reach the same point total, Los Blancos would still finish ahead and qualify. A defeat, however, would complicate matters, as ten clubs could surpass Real Madrid’s 15 points. In that scenario, at least five of those ten teams would need to drop points for Real Madrid to advance.
While the primary goal is to reach the top eight, finishing higher in the group offers clear advantages under UEFA’s new rules. Teams ranked fifth to eighth play the second leg of the Round of 16 at home. Clubs finishing third or fourth host the second leg of both their Round of 16 and quarter-final ties. The top two teams play all knockout matches with the second leg at home.
This structure keeps every position competitive until the final matchday. For Real Madrid, a win guarantees a top-four finish, meaning they would host the second leg of the Round of 16 and quarter-finals at home. If they win and Bayern Munich loses at PSV, Real Madrid would finish second, allowing them to play all subsequent knockout rounds with the second leg at home.
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